In a bumper year for elections around the world:
This Independence Day, it’s the Brits’ turn.
- So – how does it work?
- Who are the main players?
- And how did it come to this?
I’m on it.
But, please: do carry on.
Polling puts Labour 20% ahead.
The result for the incumbent Conservative Party is expected to land somewhere in the range of dismal to existential crisis.
Given this, there was much speculation as to whether Rishi Sunak would cling on as long as possible or try to take the initiative by going early.
The only requirement is the date has to be set within five years of taking office, allowing him until December 18th to call the election.
On 22nd May, he made the announcement, setting up a six-week campaign ahead of this coming Thursday, 4th July.
How does it work?
- 650 constituencies elect a Member Of Parliament (MP). Each constituency represents a calculated ideal of 73,393 voters, give or take 5% either way.
- 326 MPs is the magic number to gain a majority and form a government.
- Last time out the Conservatives swept to victory with 365 MPs, nearing double that of Labour.
Although essentially a Conservative / Labour duopoly for the last 100 years, ten parties won seats in 2019. There’s plenty of room for others to affect the outcome then.
The contenders:
Conservatives:
- Reigning champions since 2010:
But with a legacy that says: “time is up.”
The last few years have been marked by infighting. Churning through Prime Ministers, cutting funding to public services, the only thing they’ve inspired is disillusionment from even heartland Conservative voters. There’s a sense that everything is that much worse than when they took power.
Traditionally the party of the middle classes representing a centre right position but now sliding further to the right.
Prime Minister Rishi has a relatability problem.
Seen as out of touch, the sense of privilege is unshakeable. Having a billionaire father in law doesn’t help.
Or the rumours that once this is over he’ll decamp to California, having studied at Stanford, met his wife there and owning a $7M Santa Monica property. I think he’ll be OK if the election goes badly.
Labour:
- The party of the working class, representing socialism and the left wing.
Relative upstarts, they were founded in 1900 and in power by 1924.
Keir Starmer leads the government in waiting – unless something has gone horribly wrong with every poll conducted in the last 2 years. If Labour do win, its due as much to the failings of the Conservatives than any real sense that they offer an inspiring vision.
Their campaign is based on the avoidance of frightening prospective voters and boring their way to victory. Safe in the knowledge that Conservative failings are an effective vote winner.
Smaller parties point out this iteration of the Labour Party have moved towards the centre. And are barely distinct from the Conservatives in their policies. Progressive proposals have been watered down or shelved, Labour claiming this is a pragmatic approach due to what they’ll inherit.
Keir Starmer doesn’t scream charisma. His persona sets him up as the reliable option in contrast to Conservative chaos.
He mentioned his humble roots as son of a tool maker so many times, it ended up greeted with audience laughter in one debate.
Liberal Democrats
- As the Liberals, they were a political powerhouse of the 19th and early 20th Century.
The final Liberal PM; David Lloyd George, led the country through WW1 and on to 1922.
After which they were despatched to the obscurity of just six MPs through the 1950s. They merged with the Social Democratic Party in the 1980s, becoming the Liberal Democrats, and gradually returned to relevance.
Which is where it went wrong again. They were punished by voters for forming a coalition with the Conservatives in 2010, dropping from 57 to 8 MPs in 2015.
Their ethos is left leaning liberalism, progressive and pro-Eurpoean.
They’ve long been stymied by the voting system which doesn’t provide the same level of representation their vote share warrants. In 2010 they took 23% of the total vote but those 57 MPs represented just 8.6% of constituencies.
Scottish National Party
- Despite only contesting the 57 Scottish constituencies, the SNP have been the third biggest party in Parliament since 2015:
Nearly carrying a clean sweep of the country in the last three elections.
Before that they’d never had more than a handful of MPs. Having rejected Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum, Scots rewarded the party fighting for that independence with a landslide in the following years election. It’s complicated.
They obviously can’t win the election. But their performance could be key. It’s expected that Labour will win back a good proportion of Scottish seats, easing their path to a majority.
The SNP are vociferous critics of the Conservatives but ironically a strong performance, limiting Labour gains could help the Conservatives.
They aren’t in the best condition though:
With former leader Nicola Sturgeon being embroiled in an ongoing police investigation into fundraising fraud.
And just two months ago, her successor was ousted after only 13 months.
The Welsh equivalent is Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales).
They’ve returned three or four MPs in every election since 1987 so don’t have the same strategic importance.
One quirk of the nationalist parties of Scotland and Wales is that they are left leaning, inclusive and pro-European whereas the English-centric parties promoting nationalism do so from a right wing, exclusionary perspective.
Then there’s Northern Ireland. Again, it’s complicated. In basic terms the 18 constituencies are largely a contest between Unionist parties (loyal to the union with Britain) and Nationalists (seeking a united Ireland). With Alliance as a non sectarian, neutral go between.
The second biggest party are currently Sinn Féin who add to the complication by holding an abstentionist policy. They refuse to take up their places in the House of Commons so as not to legitimise British rule.
Reform UK
- The joker in the pack. Except that joke isn’t funny.
Right wing populists centred around the cult of personality that is Nigel Farage.
- Anti-European.
- Anti-immigration.
- Anti-tax.
- Anti-woke.
- Anti-net zero.
It’s easier to define them in terms of what they oppose rather than what they offer.
Nigel Farage claims credit for forcing Brexit upon us, as well as having his cake and eating it by vilifying the Conservatives as the reason it turned out badly.
Having achieved his aim, he inveigled himself into Donald Trump’s circle and retired from politics in 2021. On announcement of this election he declared he would be concentrating on the US election. Being of greater global significance and having Trump return to power was of more importance for British peace and security.
Nigel himself is something of a Trump knock-off.
There’s a lot of the same rhetoric, scaremongering and manipulating of realities. Only Nigel presents himself as a man of the people, his image is as an everyman bloke down the pub.
Just Google ‘Nigel drinking a pint,’ and you’ll see.
A week later he un-retired, due to the guilt of letting his supporters down. His aim now is to become the main opposition to the expected Labour government, usurp the beleagured Conservatives on the right and complete a reverse takeover of them before taking power in 2029. Which may seem fanciful for a party with one MP.
Nothing should be ruled out.
Polling puts them just behind the Conservatives. But they’re likely to be impacted by the same electroral system vagaries that left the Liberal Democrats underrepresented
Their support is widely spread. But expectation is that its not concentrated in sufficient numbers to win many seats.
Conversely, despite polling 5% behind Reform, the Liberal Democrats are expected to make a comeback with their support now concentrated into a few geographic areas. Which would help out Labour.
The constituencies targeted by the Liberals are generally those where Labour has little chance and tactical voting is expected to take out as many Conservatives as possible.
Setting aside any semblance of impartiality I have mixed feelings. Do I want to see the back of 14 years of mismanagement and rightwards slide? Yes. It’d be hard not to revel in it for a moment and conclude that it’s what they deserve. Until the results come in, though I daren’t believe it.
On the other hand, the pragmatic approach of Labour isn’t inspiring hopes of an about turn in the national mood beyond that initial joy.
Plus, a Conservative wipeout pushing them further to the right and the rise of Reform UK offer fear of what may happen in the future.
Despite Labour trying to play down polls suggesting it’s a foregone conclusion, the Conservatives are taking them seriously. Rather than fighting to hold marginal constituencies, they’re focusing their efforts on protecting the big names in what would normally be considered safe seats. The warnings are that no one is safe. Not even Rishi.
Another sign they’ve given up is that Rishi and senior ministers have been unusually elusive. Almost like Rishi isn’t an asset and they’re distancing themselves to be in a better position for whatever comes next.
Disquiet is apparent lower down the ranks too. In my constituency, Conservative incumbent Andrea Jenkyns has been vocal in disparaging Rishi.
She made the news by sending us a campaign leaflet which failed to even state which party she represents but did contain two photos of her with Nigel Farage. One might suspect she’s applying to join him.
The Tory supporting media are resigned to this as well. They’re raising alarm at the prospect of a Labour supermajority giving them carte blanche to impose their socialist ways. To be clear, a supermajority is essentially meaningless here. Any size majority gives the party in power the ability to do as they please.
There is at least one opponents that is unlikely to beat Rishi:
Count Binface.
Providing further evidence of British lack of respect for those in power. Even in the world of novelty candidates controversy reigns.
Count Binface used to be Lord Buckethead.
Lord B first stood for parliament in 1987 and 1992. After an extended break he returned in 2017. Except it was a different man in the bucket.
After 2017 the director of a little known 1984 US film; Hyperspace, which included the character Lord Buckethead, asserted ownership of the name. Lord B became Count Binface in the 2019 election.
In a plot twist, the film director gave his consent for another faceless interloper to use the Buckethead name, representing The Monster Raving Loony Party.
This resulted in Boris Johnson facing down both Binface and Buckethead. Buckethead beat Binface by 125 to 69 votes. Since then, Lord B has gone quiet, leaving Binface as the premier novelty candidate.
What are the important issues?
- The National Health Service
- Cost of living
- Immigration
- The environment
Every issue is tricky ground for the Conservatives, as by most metrics: things are worse than when they took over.
Trying to convince the country they’re the only party than can improve the NHS is a tough sell when there’s 14 years of contradictory evidence.
The main strategy is claiming it will be worse under Labour. Their go to during the campaign is to repeat the plucked from the air assertion that Labour’s tax plans will leave people £2,000 a year worse off.
The election campaign has seen them staggering from ineptitude to fiasco.
From making the announcement in the pouring rain with a protestor almost drowning Rishi out with the strains of “Things Can Only Get Better.” Not the most statesmanlike moment.
His team sent him onto Northern Ireland for a campaign opportunity at the site where the Titanic was built. Which was met with predictable questions and puns about sinking ships.
He stepped up the missteps with the D-Day furore, leaving the 80th anniversary commemorations in France to pre-record a TV interview. Delegation is key but probably best avoided when that leaves Keir Starmer to stand alongside Biden, Trudeau, Macron, Scholz and Zelenskyy.
There may be worse scandals, but it’s exactly the sort of thing that the typical Conservative Party member…
(…ageing white males)
…take a dim view of. As well as exactly the sort of thing they should have realised would be jumped on with even the right wing media damming Rishi.
Fortunately something else came along to replace that in the news cycle: Turns out the surprise announcement of the election date may not have been a surprise to everyone.
One of Rishi’s insiders was revealed to have placed a bet on when the election would be held shortly before the date was named.
There are now up to 15 MPs and senior staff being investigated as to whether they placed bets with insider information and if that is illegal or just morally dodgy. In a surprising development, Labour got in on the act.
One of their candidates took the novel approach of betting his Conservative opponent would win. That one definitely isn’t illegal. Just stupid.
The Conservatives have wrested back initiative as another of their MPs, seeing which the way is blowing, bet on himself to lose. He’ll be out of a job soon, may as well make a bit of extra money to tide him over.
By the time we wake up Friday morning, most of the results will be in.
We’ll know if it’s a bright new dawn (slightly less grey may be a better analogy) – or if the polls prove to have been wildly inaccurate, if there’s a horrible surprise waiting.
And then? It’s over to you guys.
Choose wisely.
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This ought to have made laugh or at least chuckle. It didn’t, but that’s not your failure, JJ. It’s ours. I do thank you for helping me put our sorry state of affairs in some perspective.
Yeah, when I look at France and, unfortunately, at the US I can conclude that it could be a lot worse. We’ve had moments in the past where far right parties have looked to be gaining minor footholds but they’ve collapsed quite quickly under the weight of scrutiny.
It is worrying though that Reform UK are erring just on this side of acceptability, or at least not going as far the French far right or Trump in what they advocate. People are being lured in and whether it’ll embolden them and give them legitimacy that they’ll use by going further right in future it’s impossible to say right now.
Good luck! Hopefully you can get more than temporary relief, but more substantive change.
As zany as it all is, things do seem mostly stable there, even after Brexit.
Being the attention-starved theater kids that we are, we had to outshine you this July 4th. The US will be commemorating our nation’s independence from British monarchy by bestowing our presidents with the powers of a king. Sic semper tyrannis?
Anyway, I thought I had seen Hyperspace, but it turns out that the movie I was thinking of was Innerspace from 1987. I’ll have to seek out that other gem…
Thanks for the education!
Thanks! Stable isn’t the word that comes to mind but all things are relative. The memory of going through Cameron > May > Johnson > Truss > Sunak between summer 2016 to autumn 2022 leaves its mark.
On the plus side we kept thinking the next one surely has to be better than what we’ve just had. Thanks to the brief and inexplicable reign of Liz Truss we broke that streak. Faint praise for Rishi, that he managed to not be as bad as the worst PM in history.
The Conservatives have kept a constant noise about whether to get rid of Rishi and roll the dice yet again so it’s been a fragile kind of stability.
Assuming Labour do take a majority we should have 5 clear years for them to make their mark. Not taking anything for granted though.
Part of me wishes we had novelty candidates in the US, completely forgetting the rent-is-too-damn-high guy, and the late, great Kinky Friedman. He ran for governor of Texas under the motto was “My Governor Is A Jewish Cowboy.”
Another part of me remembers we’ve already elected a reality TV show star to the highest job in the land. He’s the most successful novelty candidate ever.
Given yesterday’s Supreme Court decision, this fall’s election is the most important of our lifetimes. I know we say that every four years, but seriously. This is the real deal. If it goes badly, JJ, can we all come live with you?
I’ve said around here before that in a fantasy parallel universe, I’m an Expat living in the UK.
After yesterday‘s Scotus declaration, I’m ready to pack my bags.
Poor JJ. You might have an awful lot of people from these parts asking you if they can couch surf.
Apropos of nothing, I would like to formally declare that biscuits can be either savory or sweet. That Lays makes crisps, not chips. That pudding is…whatever JJ says it is.
And also…Quebec maple syrup beats Vermont. And milk should be sold in bags.
If you really want to fit in, it’s Walkers not Lays over here.
Milk in bags?!?!
Those Crazy Canadians.
You’re all welcome (for a small but reasonable fee). Though you will have to call it a sofa rather than a couch in order to fit in otherwise Nigel will want to return you back to across the ocean.
Let’s compromise and go with “settee.’
We’ll also bring some lovely throw pillows.
I am not very political, JJ…but I sure enjoyed reading this.