2025 will be a significant year in several ways. It’ll mark the start of the second half of this decade.
Also, it’ll represent the end of the first quarter of the 21st century.
For members of TNOCS, the new year represents some big opportunities reviewing the past Number Ones on Billboard’s Hot 100.
Reviewer Tom Breihan has been doing just that since 2018, in his ongoing column The Number Ones at the Stereogum website. He’s up to the virtual year of 2017.
In that regard, here’s what I think could be in store for us in the next twelve months.
First:
We’ll Finish Up the 2010s
Assuming the once- weekly column schedule from Tom stays the same, we should complete that decade in 2025 – because there are less than thirty number ones to go until we reach 2020.
(Virtual 2020, I should clarify.)
Those upcoming songs to review offer a few intriguing questions, such as:
- Will Kendrick Lamar’s continuing beef with Drake spike some extra views with the latter’s entries? (Drake had three chart toppers in 2018.)
- How will the sexual harassment and racial and religious discrimination lawsuit underway by three backup dancers for Lizzo impact her writeup?
- Does anyone really care that Maroon 5 had their fourth number one in 2018 – which also became the first non-rap song of that year? (OK, maybe I do, a little ….)
Leaving all that aside: I’m guessing that the following chart entries in this period should be most of interest and prompt some possible provocative commentary (dates are given for when the song first topped the Hot 100):
- “This is America”
Childish Gambino
(May 19, 2018)
The musical alter ego of actor Donald Glover had the biggest cultural impact by far of any number one by someone previously not associated with the recording industry.
Its message still resonates today, sad to say. Meanwhile, Glover remains a potent force in entertainment, having recently scored a Golden Globe nomination for Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Drama for Mr. and Mrs. Smith.
- “Sucker”
Jonas Brothers
(March 16, 2019)
Former boy bands typically provoke attention in Tom’s column, and I expect these guys to do the same.
The trio’s outside musical activities including their love lives only add to wanting to read more about them.
- “Old Town Road”
Li’l Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus
(April 13, 2019)
Li’l Nas X attracted attention as the first male singer to present himself as openly gay prior to a chart topper, but there’s more to him and to this song.
Mix in its record-setting nineteen consecutive weeks at Number One and help from another artist whose last top 10 appearance had been nearly 30 years earlier, and you’ve got considerable content to cogitate about here.
“All I Want for Christmas is You”
Mariah Carey
(December 21, 2019)
Heard of this one?
Yeah, I know. This Yuletide perennial looks likely to generate plenty of comments both pro and con about its omnipresence every December the last five years or so. I’m looking forward to this one, especially since it won’t be discussed during the winter season when it gets saturation airplay.
Second:
We’ll Enter The 2020s
As previously noted, barring a change in schedule and too many preemptions, we should be profiling this decade’s Number One hits by September 2025 at the latest.
This means that we’ll be looking back at songs with less than a five-year span between their initial popularity. To me, that’s a double-edged sword.
It’s easier to change or have changed your critical perspective on art the further distance you have from it in time. You realize the factors that colored your opinion at the time and thus might have affected your appreciation—or depreciation—of the work. Your age and experiences also factor into this equation, as do changes in popular music.
For example, if you had asked 7-year-old me what I would rate “The Candy Man” by Sammy Davis Jr. when it came out in 1972, I would’ve said a 10 easily. Ten years later with more growth in my musical knowledge, I wouldn’t have ranked it so highly.
(I give it a 5 right now, by the way, mainly due to Mike Curb’s production, and nothing at all due to Sammy, one of our greatest entertainers ever.)
Maybe I’m being too worrisome here and this factor won’t be problematic in reviewing songs.
Regardless, it is going to signal we’re coming closer to reaching real-time reviews for this column, which might be more daunting.
As of this writing, The Number Ones column is less than 120 weeks away from the current chart topper. That translates to a little more than two years.
Unless we have the “chart churn” we had in the mid-1970s of more than 30 Number Ones in a year, it looks very likely Tom will catch up to the present time by 2029 at the latest.
That’s either something to look forward to or to dread. Or, again, if you’re like I am: maybe both,
Third.. and Finally…
Don’t Forget the Alternatives
When he went to doing just weekly reviews of the Hot 100 Number one songs, Tom compensated the shortened schedule by adding a review every Wednesday of the topper for the Alternative Airplay chart.
This has been a fun addition because it includes a lot of rock songs that more mature TNOCS members can recall hearing during the 1990s, where it presently stands.
And it will be stuck in that decade throughout next year – because there’s nearly 100 more to go in that period.
While I don’t want to spoil all the excitement, I can tell you that we’ve got some memorable hits to look over in the alternative chart coming up, such as:
- “No Rain”
Blind Melon
- “Loser“
Beck
- “When I Come Around”
Green Day
- “You Oughta Know”
Alanis Morissette
That’s a great slate to start with, if you ask me. And much more is on the way.
Hopefully, I’ve left you at least cautiously optimistic about what we can expect in 2025.
Please share your thoughts and comments below.
And lest I forget: Happy New Year!
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One thing for sure is that the raters of the weekly polls will continue to undervalue rap songs.
Do you consider “SAD!” as rap, Ozmoe? Because I don’t. It’s just emo-pop with a trap-influenced beat.
No, I don’t
As for the Alternative Ones – the one I’m most interested in is “Pets” by Porno for Pyros, because it was the first Modern Rock #1 based on SoundScan data, making it the Alternative Ones equivalent of “Set Adrift on Memory Bliss” in chart-trivia terms. How would Tom explain “Pets” within that context?
And is there a connection between this change in methodology and the end of the run of British has-beens at Number One?
I remain slightly disappointed that – given Tom’s roots as a rap critic – he didn’t give us a Friday column on rap Number Ones once the “Alternative Number Ones” reached March 1989. They could have run side by side with each other!
Is it just because all the back-stories of everyone on “Self Destruction” from The Stop The Violence Movement would have broken the website?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yi477t-7uY4
I predict, as an older gentleman, an increase in the #1s I’ve never heard before. Of the twelve #1s in 2018, I recognize only three titles. Surely I’ve heard some of the others, but I wonder if I’m really missing anything.
Entering 2020 will bring us to BTS. Wonder if Tom is looking forward to encountering their stans again. Maybe he loves BTS now and it’ll all be OK. Might also bring a spike in views and comments if it goes the wrong way.
I always wondered how TNOs would handle songs that have no real historical runway, so to speak. Tom will become a contemporary critic, rather than a retrospective one. Without the grace of hindsight, how will his columns about the top songs of 2028 feel? Will they age well? Will he yell at clouds? Ought to be interesting…
I feel like the “no historical runway” part might be already the case if you look at the Bonus Beats. Look at how the best Tom could scrape up for a “Humble” bonus beat was a dumb fan-made remix – not even an officially licensed one!
Good column, Ozmoe, and it reminds me that I have dropped off as a regular contributor to TNOCS on the mothership and reader of Tom’s column. I still support the site financially, and I still value Tom’s work — it’s more a combination of my being less than thrilled with the actual songs making it to No. 1 as we approach today and life having gone back to “normal” from the COVID lockdown and immediate post-COVID time (where I could take some time away from work to enjoy the column).
“The Candy Man” describes the public image of Willie Wonka. But when you actually watch Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, it’s hard to miss the gap between Davis’ version of Wonka and the man in “real life”. “The Candy Man” plays like a jingle for a multi-national. Wonka seems pretty indifferent to the children’s safety. I don’t think the factory has a human resources department. I like old family films. Sometimes there is an intended(or unintended) darkness to them.
2025 will see the end of my coverage of the Alt. #1s in the TNO comments (as the chart ended in mid 2020). What started as something to keep me distracted during Covid will end up being a pretty large undertaking, and I’m looking forward to re-engaging with the songs as Tom writes (much better than I) about them.
I’ve also never heard all of “Old Town Road” and I’ve never heard any BTS songs, so those should be interesting.